As the debates over the vaccination of children continue, a new quantitative risk-benefit analysis on the vaccination of 12-17 years old has been released as a pre-print that contradicts the JCVI recommendations that this cohort should not be vaccinated.
The findings of this study carried out by Dr Deepti Gurdhasani et al (2021)
are irrefutable in favour of vaccination of this group, even when taking into account the most favourable circumstances.
Vaccinating adolescents in England: a risk-benefit analysis
The authors initial analysis, based on current infection rates shows:
“We find that in England, if the late July 2021 rates of infection among 12-17 year olds (1000 per 100,000 per week) continue over 16 weeks, this would lead to 5,100 hospitalisations, 330 admissions to ICU- (with 280 individuals requiring ventilation), and 40 deaths.
Vaccination is estimated to avert 4,630 hospitalisations, 300 ICU admissions, 250 needing ventilation, and 36 deaths, with the disbenefit of 160 cases of vaccine-associated myocarditis/pericarditis (see Figure 2A).
Even if we assume all cases of vaccine-associated myocarditis/pericarditis required hospitalisation, vaccination would still avert 4,570 hospitalisations.
For long COVID, vaccination would avert 31,000 (assuming 8% incidence) or 16,000 (assuming 4% incidence) cases in 12-17 year olds.”
They also draw attention to other benefits in terms of reducing community transmission and risks to the clinically vulnerable, and emphasise the need for mitigating measures in schools for prevention of spread.
The study provides the calculations used in the interests of transparency and to allow for welcome scrutiny in order to offer the necessary evidence for the government to reconsider their decision on vaccinating these children.
Co-Founder, Long Covid Kids
LongCovidKids.org is a patient-led advocacy and support organisation led by Sammie Mcfarland for families of children with Long Covid. Our story started with a short film on long-lasting symptoms of Covid in children.
We are supporting research with The Long Covid Kids Study with PeopleWith.
Each Sunday we send out a newsletter providing a weekly round up of statistics, latest reports in the media, current research, as well as LCK news. Read previous issues and SIGN UP
If your child experiences any symptoms that indicates they are unwell, it COULD be COVID-19, and you should get them a test to help identify if it is a current Covid infection. Please see our Frequently Asked Questions page for more information.